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CHOSEN CHARITY 2010 |
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Dr Ghassem Asrar, Director of the World Climate Research Programme
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After an exciting keynote interview in the recent International Innovation report we are pleased to present the first of a series of exclusive blogs for Research Media by Dr Ghassem Asrar, Director of the World Climate Research Programme
Gauging the impact of climate change
Climate is a global phenomenon, but with the effects of its variability being felt most at local levels, there is a need to address the regional climate information deficit. Dr Ghassem Asrar outlines how the WCRP are addressing these issues on a global scale
Earth’s climate system is controlled by a complex set of interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, continents and living organisms. In our quest to explain and attribute what changes are due to nature or to human activities we are increasingly discovering the sources and causes of its natural variability. Advances in observation networks on the Earth’s surface and in its atmosphere and oceans have helped to document the changes that have occurred in the past, or that are currently taking place.
The computer-based Earth/climate system models are providing us with projections that show the range and relative magnitude of future changes under different societal and economic development scenarios. In short, a combination of scientists and technological innovations in observations, information and telecommunication technologies have enabled us to routinely assess the changes and variability of the Earth’s climate, and furthered our understanding of the relative natural and human contributions that facilitate this.
Although climate is a global phenomenon, the effects of its variability and change are experienced most adversely at regional, local and community levels. The need for regional and local climate information is identified by decision makers and accepted by scientists as a worldwide priority. Such needs have been identified in the latest international reviews, such as the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). International environmental and climate research and observations programmes like the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Earth System Science partnership (ESSP), the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) are adjusting their observations, research and modelling priorities to respond to regional and local climate information needs in a timely and effective manner.
For example, in 2008 the WCRP established an ad hoc task force on regional climate modeling and downscaling with the aim to provide more solid scientific basis for regional assessments, similar to today’s international global ones. The group built on the regional network of capabilities and expertise to better support decision making on impact, adaptation and vulnerabilities associated with climate variability and change, whilst also seeking to improve communication regarding the scientific uncertainty inherent in regionalised climate projections. The major challenge now facing this group is sustaining and coordinating the global work performed by this network of regional and local experts, especially for less developed and developing regions. To respond to this and achieve its objectives, the Task Force established a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project (CORDEX) in 2009 (http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/RCD_Projects/CORDEX/), with the aspiration of developing a coordinated framework for evaluating and improving Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) techniques and producing a new generation of fine-scale climate projections for identified regions worldwide. CORDEX will link closely with the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which will deliver new global climate change projections in late 2010 and 2011, employing improved global climate models and new greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
CORDEX draws from a solid scientific foundation established over the past 30 years to bridge the existing gap between the climate modeling community and the end-users of climate information. The intent of CORDEX is to produce a framework valid for multiple domains across the world; however, since this task will require considerable time and resources, Africa has been designated as an initial priority region. Africa is especially vulnerable to climate change, due to the dependence of its many vital sectors on climate variability (e.g. agriculture, water management, health), and the relatively low adaptive capacity of its economies. Climate change may therefore have significant impacts on temperature and precipitation patterns over Africa, which, in turn, could interact with other environmental stressors such as land-use change, desertification and aerosol emissions. Africa stands to benefit greatly from the CORDEX framework, both with respect to further developing local research capabilities and the injection of more detailed climate information into the African adaptation and policy arenas. About 30 scientific groups worldwide are participating in CORDEX. A first meeting was held in early 2009 to make an initial definition of the CORDEX plan. This was followed in April 2010 by an Africa-CORDEX meeting in South Africa, where initial results from downscaling tests over Africa were discussed and plans for the Africa-specific part of CORDEX were further developed. In June 2010, CORDEX will be discussed at a WCRP sponsored workshop in Lille, France, where there will be an emphasis on how best to facilitate the production of regional climate information and support its use in impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. For more information about these topics please go to:
(http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/RegionalClimate/index.html).
In a forthcoming issue of International Innovation we feature an interview with Dr Renate Christ, Secretary for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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